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Initially, Donald Trump appeared to adopt a firm position on the Ukrainian conflict. After issuing warnings of "severe repercussions" during the summer if Putin carried on blocking truce talks, Trump ultimately enacted considerable sanctions on Russia's biggest oil companies, these major energy companies. This action seriously affected the Russian leader's ability to support his war effort in Ukraine.

However, via his recently unveiled comprehensive peace plan for the conflict, reportedly created by US and Russian diplomats excluding Ukrainian or European involvement, the former president has apparently returned to his pro-Putin approach.

Rewarding Military Action

The former president's initiative would in practice favor Putin for attacking a sovereign nation while leaving Ukraine's democratic system in jeopardy. Despite bold statements that "The nation's independence will be upheld", significant aspects of the initiative actually compromise that very sovereignty. Seen as a Kremlin dream would likely be a disaster for Ukraine.

Showing his business experience, Trump seems to view the situation in Ukraine as a simple land disagreement, like giving Russia a section of Ukrainian soil will satisfy the president. Yet, Russia's military campaign is not merely about occupying a damaged swath of deindustrialized land in Ukraine's east. Rather, it is about Ukraine's democratic governance – and the Russian leader's obvious desire to eliminate it so it stops acts as an enticing example for the Russian people of the responsible leadership that Putin's deepening authoritarian rule withholds them.

Territorial Giveaways

Although maintaining in position the currently divided Ukrainian provinces of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, the initiative would force Ukraine to abandon the whole this eastern territory. In addition to benefiting Russia with area that its military have been unsuccessful to seize in more than a lengthy period of fighting, this concession would leave Ukraine's defenses critically weakened.

The area is the location of Ukraine's highly-touted "defensive line", the fortified military defenses that are a critical obstacle to Russian advances. Trump would have the Ukrainian military leave these fortifications, providing Russian forces a clear path to Kyiv if he later opt to renew the hostilities.

Armed Forces Limitations

Additionally, in a move that would enable future hostilities more feasible for the Russian military, the plan would require the nation to reduce the scale of its armed forces from their existing large number personnel to a maximum of 600,000. Notably, Trump's plan sets no equivalent limits on Russia's military.

Apparently as a concession to Putin's campaign to portray Ukraine's legitimate leadership as extremists, the plan asserts: "Any extremist belief system and practices must be opposed and banned." Seemingly to emphasize this element, it insists that "The nation will hold elections in 100 days" of a ceasefire agreement. At the same time, Trump places no obligation that the Russian leader risk his authoritarian rule by holding democratic processes in his own country.

Defense Assurances

To be sure, the initiative includes Russia pledge not to "invade other states" and to "incorporate in legislation its position of non-aggression towards European nations and Ukraine". Yet given that the Russian leadership has broken equivalent accords in the previous instances – including the Budapest accord, in which the Russian government promised to recognize the nation's sovereignty in return for surrendering its former Soviet nuclear weapons, and the Minsk accords, in which Russia agreed to a truce and a restoration of occupied territory in the Donbas to the government – why should the international community believe this commitment this time?

That is why Ukraine has been so adamant on external protection assurances. While the plan warns of a "strong joint military response" should Russia restart its aggression, and provides that "The nation will receive strong security guarantees", the particulars range from unclear to concerning. The proposal would not just block the nation Nato membership but also preclude Nato members from stationing military personnel on the nation's land, effectively blocking the security presence, presumptively led by European powers, on which Ukraine had been depending to deter Russia from restoring his diminished troops, rearming, and reinvading.

World Response

Another supplementary accord apparently would provide the nation with a Nato-style defense commitment, in which any future "significant, planned, and continuous military assault" by Russia on Ukraine "would be considered as an assault endangering the tranquility of the Western nations." This indicates a military response. But different from a capable Ukraine's armed forces – the nation's primary protection against renewed invasion – the effectiveness of the side agreement would hinge on the commitment of Nato leaders, including Trump, to act through arms to Putin's attacks, a response they have {not