Seven years ago, it took just eight words to energize the party's annual gathering demonstrating Labour was becoming disillusioned with Jeremy Corbyn. Although not precisely soaring oratory, the words were greeted with rapturous applause as delegates rose in an impromptu ovation.
When the noise subsided, the then-Brexit spokesman, remained at the lectern, blinking in surprise. He was unaccustomed to his addresses having such an effect. His statement was simply: "Nobody is ruling out staying in the EU". Context, however, is key.
During that darkly divisive time of 2018, straying from his agreed text like this was always going to be seen as issuing a challenge to the party leader, who was trying to prioritise Brexit voters in key constituencies over the Europhile sentiments of his party. In just one speech, this grey-suited shadow Brexit secretary underwent a transformation – albeit temporarily – into a risk-taker who would stand up for most Labour MPs, members and voters against the leadership he would later replace.
The Shift in Position and Settled Issues
Since then, the landscape has shifted, not least to Starmer himself. An early move after taking over in 2020 was declaring the EU question was resolved by the 2019 national vote. And, at the last one, he repeatedly emphasised unbreakable pledge commitments that forbade rejoining the European Union or its core structures.
Like his predecessor, the PM's approach has been to pursue Brexit-y voters in key seats, despite survey data suggests a significant number have died or changed their minds.
A Lid That Rattles on the EU
However, the tables have turned and the prime minister’s turn to face the pressures of being a Labour leader. While Europe may not be the central crisis in UK politics, the cap which was firmly shut since Brexit is starting to loosen again.
Both Starmer and Rachel Reeves have intensified the rhetoric about the devastation that leaving the EU has caused to Britain's economic standing. It’s a useful stick with which to beat the Reform UK leader, who seldom discusses his flagship policy was once his singular purpose and is still his sole political accomplishment.
Nevertheless, the scale of the damage, which by some estimates has left Britain with a national economy that is significantly diminished than if it were still in the EU, towers over the micro-mitigation so far offered by the government. The PM's much-touted relationship reset agreed with Brussels in 2024 offers economic benefits measured in low decimal points.
Internal Pressure & Ambitious Proposals
The chancellor is one of those trying to overcome long-standing Home Office resistance to a broader scheme designed to boost growth program for young people by which young people can travel between Britain and Europe to study or work.
The deputy prime minister has pondered publicly regarding the clear advantages of being in an EU customs pact, as several Labour backbenchers, including the chair of the Treasury select committee, last week supported a Liberal Democrat motion on joining one.
While the Europe minister, the minister in charge of EU policy, who is now attending every cabinet meeting, maintains the firm boundaries are still in place, there are ways to work around them. One idea would be to announce the start of negotiations now for a more ambitious agreement, for inclusion in the next manifesto, with implementation only if Labour won a new electoral mandate.
Starmer's Fundamental Doubts
Yet, Starmer has most recently pouring cold water again by warning rejoining a European customs area would “unravel” the trade pacts with America, which he views as signature achievements of his premiership.
Reportedly that Starmer's doubts run even deeper, and is rooted in three further factors.
- First, he believes a customs pact has been made significantly more difficult as ministers are busily de-aligning from EU regulations in numerous policy areas, like environmental standards.
- Secondly, the exorbitant price set for the UK for entry into a European defense initiative and the ensuing failure of negotiations has convinced British officials that European nations are less interested in cutting special deals with Britain and are more focused on demonstrating that leaving the EU was a mistake.
- Lastly, America's latest security doctrine, praised by the Kremlin, is viewed by some influential figures in Downing Street as grounds for the UK to maintain distance from the EU.
An Alarming Document & Geopolitical Calculations
This strange and concerning document claims Europe is threatened by cultural extinction due to Muslim migration. It includes only one reference of the UK, placed beside a suggestion that Donald Trump’s administration may interfere in our politics to foster the rise of nationalist movements.
However, instead of deciding that this makes America an unreliable partner, ministers is worried that aligning closer with Europe would destabilise geopolitics further by endangering precarious American backing for Ukraine, Nato and much more besides.
Leadership Speculation and The Ghost of 2018
This situation returns us to 2018. Starmer has always said that address was not an attempt to become leader but merely an effort to keep open the possibility of staying in the EU being on the ballot paper. Indeed, in those days, Starmer still favoured a “bespoke customs union deal” of the kind he currently seems to reject.
But it’s not been lost on Downing Street have noticed that the Health Secretary, who just about everyone assumes would stand for the leadership, is part of a clutch of cabinet ministers signaling they want to go further regarding the EU.
Staff for the Deputy Prime Minister, another likely contender in a contest for the top job, maintain she won’t discuss her stance on a customs union because it would only “fuel unnecessary gossip”.
The Clear Risk and A Prudent Reminder
The danger is obvious. Should the PM reject significant moves towards a close relationship, he cedes ground to occupy the space where most of Labour MPs, members and voters reside.
It would be prudent of him to remember the effect just a few words had for him in 2018. Potential pathways for a major proposal on EU relations which the PM ought to consider; he should prise them open personally, rather than letting rivals adopt them as their own.
