A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or activists want to engage even with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but each side has possesses valuable insights to gain from the opposing positions."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
